Schedule for: 17w5061 - Nonlinear and Stochastic Problems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction

Beginning on Sunday, November 19 and ending Friday November 24, 2017

All times in Banff, Alberta time, MST (UTC-7).

Sunday, November 19
16:00 - 17:30 Check-in begins at 16:00 on Sunday and is open 24 hours (Front Desk - Professional Development Centre)
17:30 - 19:30 Dinner (Vistas Dining Room)
20:00 - 22:00 Informal gathering (Corbett Hall Lounge (CH 2110))
Monday, November 20
07:00 - 08:45 Breakfast (Vistas Dining Room)
08:45 - 09:00 Introduction and Welcome by BIRS Station Manager (TCPL 201)
09:00 - 17:30 Monday Chair: Adam Manahan, Hai Lin (TCPL 201)
09:00 - 09:30 Timothy Delsole: Understanding the role of ocean dynamics in multi-year predictability (TCPL 201)
09:30 - 10:00 Entcho Demirov: North Atlantic atmospheric and ocean decadal climate variability – dominant patterns and abrupt climate shifts (TCPL 201)
10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer)
10:30 - 11:00 Adam Monahan: Enhancement of sea surface wind skewness by filtering (TCPL 201)
11:30 - 13:00 Lunch (Vistas Dining Room)
13:00 - 14:00 Guided Tour of The Banff Centre (Corbett Hall Lounge (CH 2110))
14:00 - 14:20 Group Photo (TCPL Foyer)
14:30 - 15:00 Hai Lin: Nonlinearity of atmospheric response to ENSO and MJO (TCPL 201)
15:00 - 15:30 Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer)
15:30 - 16:00 Shouhong Wang: Dynamic transitions in geophysical fluid dynamics (TCPL 201)
16:00 - 16:30 Corentin Herbert: Kinetic theory for geophysical flows (TCPL 201)
16:30 - 17:00 David Straub: Freely decaying turbulence near a model tropopause (TCPL 201)
17:00 - 17:30 Discussion (TCPL 201)
17:30 - 19:30 Dinner (Vistas Dining Room)
Tuesday, November 21
07:00 - 09:00 Breakfast (Vistas Dining Room)
09:00 - 17:30 Tuesday Chair: Youmin Tang, Entcho Demirov (TCPL 201)
09:00 - 09:30 Shaoqing Zhang: A high efficiency approximation of EnKF for coupled model data assimilation (TCPL 201)
09:30 - 10:00 Nan Chen: A conditional Gaussian framework for data assimilation and prediction of nonlinear turbulent dynamical systems (TCPL 201)
10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer)
10:30 - 11:00 Fei Lu: Data assimilation with stochastic model reduction (TCPL 201)
11:00 - 11:30 Sam Pimentel: The challenge of diurnal sea surface temperatures (TCPL 201)
11:30 - 13:30 Lunch (Vistas Dining Room)
13:30 - 14:00 Youmin Tang: Progress towards improving seasonal climate prediction by mathematical methods (TCPL 201)
14:00 - 14:30 Zheqi Shen: Particle filter for data assimilation of nonlinear model systems with non-Gaussian noises (TCPL 201)
14:30 - 15:00 Siraj ul Islam: Optimum initialization of South Asian seasonal forecast using climatological relevant singular vectors (TCPL 201)
15:00 - 15:30 Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer)
15:30 - 16:00 Chun-Hsiung Hsia: On the long time stability of a temporal discretization scheme for the three dimensional primitive equations (TCPL 201)
16:00 - 16:30 Xiaoming Wang: Numerical scheme for long-time statistical properties of large turbulent systems (TCPL 201)
16:30 - 17:30 Discussion (TCPL 201)
17:30 - 19:30 Dinner (Vistas Dining Room)
Wednesday, November 22
07:00 - 09:00 Breakfast (Vistas Dining Room)
09:00 - 11:30 Wednesday Chair: Shouhong Wang (TCPL 201)
09:00 - 09:30 Jianping Li: Nonlinear local Lyapunov Exponent and attractor radius and their applications to predictability study and ensemble predictions (TCPL 201)
09:30 - 10:00 Frank Kwasniok: The structure of predictability in an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model (TCPL 201)
10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer)
10:30 - 11:00 Chanh Kieu: On the predictability of hurricane intensity (TCPL 201)
11:00 - 11:30 Discussion (TCPL 201)
11:30 - 13:30 Lunch (Vistas Dining Room)
13:30 - 17:30 Free Afternoon (Banff National Park)
17:30 - 19:30 Dinner (Vistas Dining Room)
Thursday, November 23
07:00 - 09:00 Breakfast (Vistas Dining Room)
09:00 - 17:30 Thursday Chair: Wansuo Duan, David Straub (TCPL 201)
09:00 - 09:30 Wansuo Duan: Target observations for improving initializations for two types of El Nino events predictions (TCPL 201)
09:30 - 10:00 Fei Zheng: Effects of stochastic model error on improving ENSO prediction skills (TCPL 201)
10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer)
10:30 - 11:00 Ting Liu: ENSO ensemble prediction for the past 161 years from 1856-2016 (TCPL 201)
11:00 - 11:30 Aneesh Subramanian: Exploring stochastic and multi-scale modeling approaches for a seamless prediction system (TCPL 201)
11:30 - 13:30 Lunch (Vistas Dining Room)
13:30 - 14:00 Ruiqiang Ding: Nonlinear local lyapunov vectors and their applications to ensemble predictions (TCPL 201)
14:00 - 14:30 Maria E. B. Frediani: Statistical Weather Prediction using Analog Ensembles (TCPL 201)
14:30 - 15:00 Guodong Sun: Uncertainties and sensitivities analysis for the soil moisture due to model parameter errors (TCPL 201)
15:00 - 15:30 Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer)
15:30 - 16:00 Yiwen Mao: Statistical predictability of surface wind components (TCPL 201)
16:00 - 17:00 Discussion (TCPL 201)
17:00 - 17:30 Free time (TCPL 201)
17:30 - 19:30 Dinner (Vistas Dining Room)
Friday, November 24
07:00 - 09:00 Breakfast (Vistas Dining Room)
09:00 - 11:30 Friday Chair: Shouhong Wang, Youmin Tang, Adam Manahan, Wansuo Duan (TCPL 201)
10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer)
10:30 - 11:00 Discussion (TCPL 201)
11:00 - 11:30 Summary and closing remark (TCPL 201)
11:30 - 12:00 Checkout by Noon (Front Desk - Professional Development Centre)
12:00 - 13:30 Lunch from 11:30 to 13:30 (Vistas Dining Room)